January 2026 Auto Market Stable; NEV Production & Sales

January 2026 Auto Market Stable; NEV Production & Sales Grow

I. Overview of January 2026 Auto Market

On February 28, 2026, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released January 2026 auto production and sales data. The domestic auto market remained stable overall. Although month-on-month declines were seen due to seasonal factors and policy transitions, the market showed “stable progress.” Notably, new energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales grew year-on-year, and auto exports continued strong growth. As a core basic component, the fastener industry is deeply tied to the auto market. January’s performance directly reflects fastener demand patterns and industry direction, providing key reference for fastener companies planning for the year.

January data showed “month-on-month decline, year-on-year divergence.” Production and sales reached 2.45 million and 2.346 million units respectively, down 25.7% and 28.3% month-on-month. Production edged up 0.01% year-on-year, while sales fell 3.2% year-on-year. CAAM attributed the year-on-year sales decline to: (1) NEV purchase tax policy adjustments and annual transition of local subsidy policies, causing demand pull-forward in late 2025; (2) pre-Spring Festival foot traffic reduction and delayed purchase intentions.

Domestic vs. export: “one down, one up.” Domestic sales were 1.665 million units, down 14.8% year-on-year (down 33.9% month-on-month). Conventional fuel vehicle domestic sales were 1.022 million units, down 11.9% year-on-year (down 7.9% month-on-month). Conventional fuel vehicles—the fastener demand “base”—require 4,000–7,500 fasteners per vehicle (bolts, nuts, rivets, etc.). Exports reached 681,000 units, up 44.9% year-on-year (down 9.5% month-on-month). BEV exports: 202,000 units, up 100% year-on-year (up 16.9% month-on-month). PHEV exports: 99,000 units, up 97.3% year-on-year (down 21.8% month-on-month). NEV export surge drives demand for high-strength, lightweight fasteners for battery packs and e-drive systems.

II. Segment Details & Fastener Demand Implications

Passenger vehicle (PV) sales declined in January, but Chinese brands remained dominant. PV production and sales were 2.062 million and 1.988 million units, down 28.4% and 30.2% month-on-month, and down 4.1% and 6.8% year-on-year. Chinese brand PV sales: 1.329 million units, down 32.1% month-on-month, down 8.9% year-on-year, accounting for 66.9% of total PV sales (down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year). Among foreign brands, all top five saw double-digit month-on-month declines; US brands posted double-digit year-on-year growth. By segment: Chinese brand sedan share 54.4%, SUV 74.1%, MPV 71.7%. Different vehicle segments have different fastener needs: SUVs (complex chassis) require more high-strength flange bolts and wheel hub bolts; MPVs (interior assembly) use more plastic clips and countersunk screws; sedans have greater demand for lightweight fasteners (aluminum alloy bolts, etc.).

Commercial vehicle (CV) market continued improving—a key growth driver. CV production and sales: 388,000 and 359,000 units, down 6.8% and 15.6% month-on-month, up 29.9% and 23.5% year-on-year. CV growth reflects recovery in logistics and construction. CVs require “high-strength, high-durability” fasteners: heavy truck chassis and frames need Grade 8.8+ high-strength bolts; wheel hubs require dedicated hub bolts and nuts. This provides market space for premium industrial fastener companies.

NEV market remained the January highlight, driving fastener industry upgrade toward high-end and lightweight. NEV production and sales: 1.041 million and 945,000 units, down 39.4% and 44.8% month-on-month, up 2.5% and 0.1% year-on-year. NEV sales reached 40.3% of total auto sales. Compared to conventional vehicles, NEVs use 15–20% more fasteners per vehicle, with greater emphasis on lightweighting, corrosion resistance, and insulation. Battery pack mounting bolts need anti-vibration, anti-corrosion, and electrical insulation properties. Motor applications require high-strength bolts with anti-loosening features. Self-piercing rivets (SPR) are widely used for dissimilar material joining in NEV bodies. In 2025, China’s NEV fastener market exceeded RMB 33 billion, and will continue growing with NEV production/sales.

Top 10 auto groups (by sales) sold 1.962 million units in January, accounting for 83.6% of total sales. Year-on-year: SAIC, Geely, Dongfeng, GAC, and Great Wall saw growth; others declined. These automakers have stable fastener supply chains. Their sales growth directly boosts orders for supporting fastener companies, while also pushing fastener companies to accelerate technological innovation to meet high-end fastener demand.

III. Outlook & Implications for Fastener Industry

CAAM remains optimistic about auto industry development. In early 2026, the state introduced multiple pro-people and pro-business policies. The “two new” policies (new infrastructure & new urbanization) are being implemented smoothly, with local governments following up. The “Work Plan for Accelerating New Growth Drivers in Service Consumption” focuses on auto aftermarket services. As policies are implemented, auto market demand is expected to stabilize and recover.

For the fastener industry, automotive high-quality transformation brings both opportunities and challenges. The “15th Five-Year Plan” period is a key window for China’s auto industry transformation toward electrification, intelligence, and lightweighting—which will push the fastener industry to upgrade toward high-strength, lightweight, and smart high-end products, break domestic bottlenecks for premium fasteners, and increase product added value. Current localization rate for high-end battery pack fasteners rose from 15% (2020) to 35% (2025), but engine bolts and other premium products still rely on imports. More R&D investment is needed for core technology breakthroughs.

As a fastener website operator, closely monitor auto market production/sales trends, policy direction, and technology trends. January’s stable market—especially NEVs and CVs—provides a good start for the fastener industry in 2026. With spring construction season ramping up, auto production/sales and fastener demand will gradually recover. Industry players should seize market opportunities, optimize product mix, strengthen cooperation with downstream automakers, achieve high-quality development, and support the collaborative upgrade of China’s auto and fastener industries.