Steady 2026 Industrial Growth and New Momentum

[Abstract]:Experts generally hold optimistic expectations for industrial growth in 2026. Wu Chaoming, Chief Economist at Caixin Financial Holdings, stated that with the continuous exertion of new quality productive forces

Experts generally hold optimistic expectations for industrial growth in 2026. Wu Chaoming, Chief Economist at Caixin Financial Holdings, stated that with the continuous exertion of new quality productive forces, combined with the effects of new policy-based financial instruments and the 500 billion yuan quota for local government debt carryover, alongside export growth, improved corporate profitability, and industrial projects kicking off in the inaugural year, the national value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size is expected to achieve medium-to-high-speed growth of around 5%, laying a solid foundation for full-year economic growth.

This solid confidence in growth stems from the substantial achievements in industrial development in 2025. Data shows that in 2025, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 5.9% year-on-year. The scale of manufacturing has remained the largest globally for 16 consecutive years, with the industry and information technology sector contributing over 40% to economic growth, highlighting its role as a "ballast stone." Guan Bing, Director of the Institute of Industrial Economics at CCID Research, pointed out that in 2026, the concentrated start of major projects and the advancement of the domestic demand expansion strategy will bring multiple benefits, propelling a steady start for the industrial economy.

The pivotal role of major industrial provinces serves as the core support for stabilizing growth. The top ten industrial provinces, including Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong, collectively account for over 60% of the nation's total industrial value-added. Localities are actively setting growth targets and planning key projects. Zhejiang aims for an industrial value-added growth of around 6% for enterprises above designated size, focusing on core digital economy industries and driving manufacturing investment growth of over 8%. Anhui is pushing forward with its "Five Major Actions," striving for a 6.5% growth in industrial value-added and cultivating diverse growth engines.

Localities are activating industrial growth momentum by using project construction as a key lever. Hebei is implementing an "Industrial Project Construction Year," promoting a doubling of the electronic information industry and rolling out hundreds of key projects each valued at over 100 million yuan. Shandong has introduced targeted growth stabilization plans for 12 key industries, planning to implement over 3,000 technological transformation projects valued at more than 20 million yuan to extend and strengthen industrial chains. Shanghai has finalized 133 industrial projects to start throughout the year, with a total investment of 110 billion yuan, prioritizing the commencement of 33 projects each valued at over 1 billion yuan in the first quarter to sprint for a "strong start." Zhang Junkuo, former Deputy Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, noted that these projects will generate tangible workload, effectively driving a rebound in manufacturing investment, which is expected to rise to 3%-5% this year.

Cultivating and expanding new growth drivers is the key breakthrough point for achieving high-quality industrial growth. The "15th Five-Year Plan" places building a modern industrial system at the forefront. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has clarified its push to expand emerging industries and establish future industries. On one hand, it will implement actions to foster new momentum in emerging industries and create demonstration bases; on the other, it will layout forward-looking major sci-tech projects and support the construction of pilot zones for future industries.

2026 may become a critical turning point for future industries transitioning from technological breakthroughs to industrial implementation. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) predicts leapfrog development across multiple tracks, with deep integration of sci-tech and industrial innovation, where open scenario applications will pave the way for commercializing technologies. Regions are tailoring their layouts to local conditions: Shanghai is focusing on the low-altitude economy and embodied AI, promoting the scaling of eVTOLs and humanoid robots; Zhejiang is channeling efforts into new materials and new energy, aiming for strategic emerging industries to account for 35% of value-added; Beijing is cultivating new growth points in 6G and quantum technology; Guangdong is targeting trillion-yuan emerging industry clusters, laying out niche fields like embodied AI and brain-computer interfaces.

Fujian is accelerating emerging industries such as new energy and high-end equipment through six major special actions, rolling out over 1,500 provincial key technological transformation projects, while balancing traditional industry upgrades with the cultivation of future industries. Pang Ming, a distinguished senior researcher at the National Institution for Finance and Development, stated that industrial development in 2026 needs to continuously focus on fostering new quality productive forces, promoting the deep integration of technologies like large models and the industrial internet with manufacturing, and forming replicable new scenarios and models.

From major industrial provinces taking the lead to the accelerated gathering of new momentum, China's industry in 2026 is steadily advancing along the path of improving quality and efficiency. Bolstered by policies, driven by projects, and empowered by technology, the industry will not only achieve medium-to-high-speed growth but also continuously optimize its industrial structure. This will ensure a strong start for high-quality development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period and firmly secure the foundation of the real economy.

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Steady 2026 Industrial Growth and New Momentum

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